Bengaluru: Results of five elections to state assemblies are about communication and connect – in the big state of Uttar Pradesh it was correct communication said unabashedly, and in the hard fought battleground of Punjab, it was clamour for change that had clear connect with people.
We do not have the luxury of final count but the Exit polls or Post polls surveys in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur have added much to our knowledge quotient and allowed us to indulge in this analysis.
Uttar Pradesh again going the BJP way point to the mapping of welfare schemes to women voters. The benefits of (ration and prashasan) were effectively communicated by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the party leadership. The welfare schemes spoke for themselves while allowing the BJP leadership to attack the opposition. On the other hand, the opposition made a shrill campaign without anything to show.
The giant campaign machinery of BJP and the typical campaign of Narendra Modi fighting every election with the same vigour, and the perfect vote bank polarization contributed to Yogi becoming UPYogi again. Hijab issue does not seem to have had much effect in UP because the Muslim women have become neutral on Modi in 2019.
Kashi corridor added further hope and trust to the UP voters about Modi-Yogi as doers.
What does UP or Punjab results mean to Karnataka, especially the ruling BJP? The party and the government will have to answer many questions, including anti-incumbency. Last week’s budget does not offer any grand answer that could have set direction for the 2023 elections.
Unlike Akhilesh Yadav in UP, Congress party state chief DK Shivakumar is aggressive in words & deeds, does not shy away from street fights or borrowing from the BJP’s strategy book to hit back. To combat DKS, Chief Minister BS Bommai has to be Yogi Adityanath and more.
BJP should stop the drift and look at Karnataka as 2 entities in 1 state. Treat capital Bengaluru as a separate unit and the rest of the state as another entity. Tech driven economy slogan does not bring votes in rest of Karnataka as it sells in Bengaluru.
To counter aggressive Congress, BJP has to set the agenda – political programmes, development narrative, caste combinations and cluster campaign.
Arvind Kejriwal is going to win Punjab because he changed the communication narrative with change (badlav) itself as the central theme. In Karnataka, both BJP and Congress have to relook at their communication strategy. There is scope for both, but one party will win. And the party that scripts distinct communication will come the winner.
– MJ Srikant,