Category: COVID19

~ Maharashtra is projected to hit its peak of 82,723 active cases according to the most likely model on July 5 and 1.1 lakh active cases as per the SEIR model, on July 17~
~Delhi is projected to hit its peak of 47,461 active cases according to the most likely model and 47,159 active cases as per the SEIR model both on July 4~
~Tamil Nadu is projected to hit its peak of 30,247 active cases according to the most likely model on July 5~

Mumbai, June 22, 2020: Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several weeks, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, has released its July projections of the COVID-19 pandemic at both national and state levels.
Led by insights and efficacy, the report has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases, with an overall prediction level of 92% plus for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes Indias possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. The models are dynamic and with fresh data drawn from central government, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the graphs are changed accordingly on a weekly basis, thereby presenting the best projections. (Please refer to the attached images in the mail to the see previous forecast accuracy and latest projection for the country and critical states/cities)
As per the latest projections, India will hit a peak of 2.6 lakh active cases on July 15, according to the most likely scenario, and a peak of 3.9 lakh cases on July 25 as per the SEIR model.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways for July

1. India is projected to hit its peak of 2,59,967 active cases according to the most likely model on July 15 and 3,86,916 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 25.
2. Maharashtra, which is the worst-hit state, is projected to hit its peak of 82,723 active cases according to the most likely model on July 5 and 1.1 lakh active cases as per the SEIR model, on July 17.
3. Tamil Nadu is projected to hit its peak of 30,247 active cases according to the most likely model on July 5 and 32,909 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 6.
4. Delhi is projected to hit its peak of 47,461 active cases according to the most likely model and 47,159 active cases as per the SEIR model both on July 4.
5. Gujarat is projected to hit its peak of 6,761 active cases according to the most likely model and 7,044 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 29.
6. West Bengal is projected to hit its peak of 7,149 active cases according to the most likely model and 10,417 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 30.
7. Mumbai and Chennai are projected to hit their peaks of 37,194 active cases and 21,268 active cases on June 30 and July 3, respectively, according to the most likely model. As per the SEIR model, Mumbai is projected to hit is peak of 38,899 active cases on July 15 and Chennai will reach its peak of 19,054 active cases on July 6, respectively.
   For details on the study findings and insights, visit – https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts 
   Methodology: Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is a joint endeavour by Times Network and data research firm Protiviti. The report is based on three different models, The Percentage Model, which involves mapping trends from Italy and the United States onto India, the Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in China and South Korea in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. The report takes into account the healthcare capacity of the nation and its states, to understand shortfall of beds and availability of ICUs, in the event of an escalation. Based on a predictive model which leverages verified big data and new technologies for effective decision making, the report aims to empower the administrative authorities to spot possible hotspots, critical gaps and build capacity to meet the arising. The report encapsulates six national projections and includes individual analysis for 8 states and 4 cities. 

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Bengaluru, June 22,2020:

Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa convened a meeting with ministers and senior officials regarding containing Covid 19 in Bengaluru.

Highlights of the meeting:

1. As the number of cases are increasing in Bengaluru at an alarming rate and Chief Minister opined that this can be contained only if preventive measures have to be implemented strictly, he said.
2. He directed the officials to work in this direction.
3. Lockdown shall be implemented strictly in the clusters which reported more number of cases, especially, K.R. Market and surrounding areas such as Siddapura, VVPuram, Kalasipalya etc. It was decided to seal the the adjoining streets, where the cases are reported.
4. Stringent action would be taken against those who violate quarantine and FIR would be filed if necessary.
5. Officers were directed to fix rates for treatment of Covid patients in Private hospitals to enable patients avail treatment in private hospitals.
6. It was also decided to set up fever clinics in all wards.
7. Officers were directed to maintain hygiene and provide other basic amenities to the people who were quarantined in Social welfare hostels and other government institutions.
8. Covid 19 should be contained without affecting the economic activities in Bengaluru, which resumed recently, CM said.
9. Booth level officers and volunteers are working to trace contract and monitor on quarantined persons.
10. War room shall have real time information on availability of beds in various Covid hospitals and shall facilitates the infected to avail treatment without losing any time.

Deputy Chief Minister Dr. C.N. Ashwathnarayana, Revenue Minister R. Ashoka, Home Minister Basavaraja Bommai, Chief Secretary to Government T.M. Vijayabhaskar, Additional Chief Secretary and Development Commissioner Vandita Sharma, Additional Chief Secretary to Government, Health Department, Jawaid Akhthar and other senior officers were present.

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At a time when Corona virus is at its peak, the Department of Health, the Medical Education Department, the BBMP and other departments are playing with people’s lives.

Irresponsible behaviour on the part of Ministers like Minister of Medical Education K. Sudhakar shows that Our Honourable Chief Minister has no control over his cabinet and officials.

Government officials and ministers of state government with vested interest in private hospitals are exploiting the public by framing various rules. Bengaluru’s Victoria Hospital which comes under the Medical Education Department is refusing to, even admit, Corona positive cases. But Minister
K. Sudhakar looks unaware and seems to be involved with these hospitals.

A BBMP health official has stated in the media that there is no coordination between the various departments, which implies that the government has lost control of the situation.

The Aam Aadmi Party criticizes the government for its corruption. It has no serious plans for the control of Covid-19 and is using this pandemic to make money. The hospitals which come under the Medical Education Department have been clearly indicated and these hospitals are mere puppets of the Minister of Medical Education K. Sudhakar.

The Aam Aadmi Party demands that the Chief Ministers should immediately co-ordinate with the State Health Ministry, Medical Education Department and BBMP and stop playing with the lives of people.

–Jagadish V Sadam
State Media-In-charge
Aam Aadmi Party, Karnataka

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By Dr. Hirenappa Udnur, Consultant Pulmonologist, Columbia Asia Hospital Hebbal

The pandemic, covid-19 did change our lives and our lifestyles in many ways. People who are healthy are also thinking twice before stepping out from their homes. This is the kind of fear that covid-19 has implanted in our lives. The new disease that has hit us, is proving to be a disease that is not only spreading faster but is spreading to those whose immune system is weak. And especially people who have weak respiratory system are more prone to covid-19.

It is a known information that Covid-19 shares about 82% of its characteristics with SARS, that caused an international epidemic few years ago. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) are among those few infections that weakens the immune system of the person when they get effected with it. Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses that cause respiratory illnesses of varying severity from the common cold to fatal pneumonia. This also includes chronic infections likes asthma, bronchitis, upper respiratory infections, tuberculosis, lung cancer and types of pulmonary-infections, dust sensitivity, allergic phenomena. Smoking and being exposed to pollutants and chemicals are other causes that can weaken one’s respiratory system.

India has a disproportionately high burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, there are a wide number of measures that a person with existing respiratory conditions, people with compromised immunity and people who are at a higher risk of infection can take in order to fight the pandemic, such as

Avoid getting into situations that can trigger your infections. In case of Asthmatic patients, don’t get into panic times.
Maintain proper physical distance from every person if out of the house, as can play a very important for weak lung people.
Practice frequent hand washing
If you have chronic lung disorders, stick to your house
Disinfect the regularly used objects like knobs, laptops, remotes, staircase railings, others
Always wear a mask, this not only saves you from covid but from other infections too.
Stay in a well ventilated places. Avoid air-conditioned / closed rooms.
Keep yourself away from things that can cause irritation or allergic reactions.
Maintain proper diet. Avoid taking foods that can cause common cold, fever and cough. As these can bring down your immunity system.
Always have refills of your medications. This will help you in times of emergency.
Avoid too cold places. People with tonsils, asthma, cold places can make you sick.
Exercise regularly. Breathing exercises can be quite helpful in building the immunity.
Keep yourself as tidy as possible, take regular showers.
Always use fresh pair of clothes, don’t use clothes that are exposed to outer environment for longer durations.

Remember, Covid-19 and the medication to fight against it is still under research. Also, this life-threatening disease is a respiratory infection. That means, people with a weak pair of lungs need to be extra cautious than the usual. Since, we know what covid-19, the pandemic can do, the best measure that one can take is to follow all the safety precautions and to stay safe and healthy!

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Bengaluru, 22 June, 2020: To support the efforts of the Hamali daily wage workers working tirelessly to ensure uninterrupted food supply throughout India during the Coronavirus pandemic, Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) today announced that it is distributing dry ration kits to the workers of the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) market in Bengaluru.

The APMC markets are at the heart of ensuring essential food supplies to the different parts of the country. The smooth functioning of APMC markets is heavily dependent on daily wage labourers or Hamali workers who on a daily basis tirelessly do loading and unloading of tonnes of grains, vegetables and fruits, thus ensuring uninterrupted food supply throughout the country. Kotak is distributing dry ration kits to Hamali workers at APMC markets located at Bengaluru, Indore, Hyderabad, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Navi Mumbai.

D Kannan, Group President – Commercial Banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank said, “Hamali workers are an important part of the food supply chain that delivers vegetables, fruits and agri commodities to different parts of the country. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the normal working of the APMC markets, leading to loss of livelihood for these daily wage workers. Providing dry rations kits is a small contribution from us to acknowledge their ceaseless efforts and help them and their families during this difficult period.”

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